8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Nov 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 09/01/2006

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Main Features
About this Release

NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES

		Nov 05	Oct 05 to Nov 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 224.8	0.0
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 203.1	-0.1

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

NOVEMBER KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series was unchanged in November 2005. This follows an increase of 0.2% in each of the two previous months.
In November 2005, the states with the largest increases in the trend estimate were Queensland (+0.5%), Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (both +0.4%) while states with the largest declines were South Australia (-0.4%) and Victoria (-0.3%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.1% in November 2005. This follows an increase of 0.5% in October and a decrease of 0.3% in September 2005.
States with an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate were New South Wales (+0.7%) and the Australian Capital Territory (+1.5%) while states with a decline were Victoria (-0.9%), Queensland (-0.5%), Western Australia (-0.2%) and the Northern Territory (-1.5%). South Australia and Tasmania were unchanged.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 2.8% in November 2005 compared with October 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 3.6%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 1.7%.
Australian turnover increased by 3.8% in November 2005 compared with November 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.6%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 2.9%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
December 2005	3 February 2006
January 2006	2 March 2006
February 2006	31 March 2006
March 2006	8 May 2006
April 2006	30 May 2006
May 2006	3 July 2006

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for November 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 920.6	136.3
Change from preceding month ($m)	488.9	41.5
% change from preceding month (%)	2.8	0.2

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Rod Cowie on Canberra (02) 6252 5978.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After three months of weak growth there was no change in the trend estimate in November 2005. Department stores, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for three or more months.

FOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend estimate has been slowing since July 2005 with weak growth in November 2005. All states, except New South Wales, had weak growth, no change or a decline in the trend estimate in November 2005.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for four months with all published states having a decline in the trend estimate in November 2005. Of the published states, New South Wales (seven months) and Victoria (four months) have been in decline the longest.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

After two months of weak growth, there was no change in the trend estimate in November 2005. New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least one month while Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least two months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for three months. New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months while Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had six months or more of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for seven months. New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have had a decline in the trend estimate for ten, six and seven months respectively. Tasmania has had strong growth for nine months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate has been in decline for 13 months. New South Wales (17 months), Victoria (six months) and Western Australia (13 months) have had a decline in the trend estimate.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had no change for two months. Over the last seven months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been nine months of moderate or strong growth. New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have had moderate or strong growth for three, 11, five and five months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth for 13 months. There has been moderate to strong growth in Food retailing for eight months and Hospitality and services for three months. All other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least two months with Other retailing (over 12 months), Recreational good retailing (ten months) and Department stores (seven months) having been in decline the longest.

VICTORIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for four months. Food retailing and Hospitality and services have had weak growth for two and three months respectively. All other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least two months with Other retailing, Recreational good retailing (both six months) and Household good retailing (five months) having been in decline the longest.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for nine months. There has been at least seven months of strong growth in Household good retailing and Hospitality and services, while Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for three, one and seven months respectively.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for three months. All industries, except Other retailing, had either no change or a decline in the trend estimate in November 2005. Department stores, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline in the trend estimate for three, ten, two and five months respectively.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Growth in the trend estimate has been slowing since June 2005 with weak growth for the last three months. Department stores and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for three and 13 months respectively, while Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had moderate or strong growth for at least three months. Growth in the trend estimate for Food retailing has been slowing since July 2005 with weak growth in November 2005.

TASMANIA

After three months of strong growth, there has been moderate growth in the trend estimate for two months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for 11, six and nine months respectively.